2008-12-04
人民幣匯價續貶 傳央行入市止跌
人民幣匯價續貶 傳央行入市止跌
(星島)12月4日 星期四
(星島日報 報道)由於人民幣貶值預期急速升溫，人民幣兌美元 昨天早段連續第三天觸及匯價波幅下限創出○五年匯改以來的新紀錄。為了中美展開戰略經濟對話前營造氣氛以及抑制人民幣過快貶值，匯市午後傳出人行入市大手沽出美元。在人行干預下兌美元匯價總算脫離波幅下限。不過，市場對人民幣貶值的預期未變。
Hong Kong Magazine
連續三天觸及波幅下限
在中國外匯交易中心，周三人民幣兌美元匯價以六點八八四五元開盤，一開市即達到當日波動區間下限。交易員表示，人民幣兌美元急速貶值，市場美元幾乎被一掃而空。由於美元流動性短缺，令昨天交易幾乎停頓。至午後時段，傳出人行入市為匯市提供美元。受此提振，人民幣兌美元匯價在尾盤稍微回升至六點八八三〇，較周三收盤價六點八八七〇微升。
交易員稱，在美國 財長保爾森訪華前夕，人行周三將人民幣兌美元的中間價設定在六點八五○二，較前日收市價高開三百六十八個點子，顯示人行有意挽救人民幣頹勢，紓緩貶值預期。雖然央行 意願良好，但市場仍看淡人民幣，故開盤即「鎖定」在當天波幅（千分之五）下限。如果以昨天的中間價計在人行引導下，人民幣對美元匯率暫別過去連跌四天的走勢。
在中美對話之前，人民幣連續貶值，頗耐人尋味。摩根大通 大中華區首席經濟師龔方雄表示，人民幣匯價在早段急跌，是向候任美國總統奧巴馬 發出的信號：在經濟放緩的情況下，內地要面臨本身的政治問題，而透過中美戰略經濟對話的機制，高層對話有助雙方解決貿易失衡及匯率問題。
有市場人士指出，奧巴馬表面上是自由貿易者，實質上是貿易保護者，如果中國通過貶值促出口，勢必引發貿易爭端，中國就會再被冠以「匯率操控」之名。保爾森周二在華盛頓 表示，中國有必要繼續改革匯率政策，讓人民幣升值及開放市場。
摩通：向奧巴馬發訊號
北京 一名銀行交易員稱，在今年七月之前，人民幣大幅升值令中國貿易環境持續惡化，現在需要「撥亂反正」，中國要用猛藥、重藥來救助中小出口企業，包括人民幣適當貶值，中國本身的處境無法滿足美國一味要求人民幣升值的訴求。
另外，瑞銀周三發表報告指出，長遠來看人民幣持續貶值的空間有限，目前斷定中國匯率政策轉向仍為時過早。瑞銀指出，在歐美面臨經濟衰退及需求劇降的煎熬之際，人民幣貶值必將引來中國「以鄰為壑」的批評，令中國在主要出口市場受到貿易保護主義的壓力；同時，人民幣貶值亦可能帶動周邊國家競相將本國貨幣貶值，這對中國並無益處。
周一人民幣兌美元收盤創下○五年匯改以來最大跌幅，盤中觸及當天波幅下限；周二以波動區間下限收市；周三開盤即達到波幅下限，表明市場對人民幣貶值的預期有增無減。財經組記者 王薇
大摩料人民幣貶值1成
大摩料人民幣貶值1成
(明報)12月3日 星期三
根據摩根士丹利 ，中國人民幣兌美元 可能最多貶值10%，因中國經濟放緩。摩根早些預測人民幣不會貶值。
Hong Kong DVD
摩根士丹利駐倫敦 的全球貨幣研究主管Stephen Jen說：「鑒於中國目前面臨的經濟現實，北京 可能允許人民幣臨時小幅貶值（5%至10%）。」
美國 財長保爾森將在12月4日和5日訪華期間，預計將討論人民幣匯率問題。
人民幣兌美元12月1日一度貶值0.7%，創中國央行 2005年放棄釘住美元匯率以來的最大單日跌幅。
(彭博)
(明報)12月3日 星期三
根據摩根士丹利 ，中國人民幣兌美元 可能最多貶值10%，因中國經濟放緩。摩根早些預測人民幣不會貶值。
Hong Kong DVD
摩根士丹利駐倫敦 的全球貨幣研究主管Stephen Jen說：「鑒於中國目前面臨的經濟現實，北京 可能允許人民幣臨時小幅貶值（5%至10%）。」
美國 財長保爾森將在12月4日和5日訪華期間，預計將討論人民幣匯率問題。
人民幣兌美元12月1日一度貶值0.7%，創中國央行 2005年放棄釘住美元匯率以來的最大單日跌幅。
(彭博)
2008-12-02
學者：人民幣不會持續大幅貶值
學者：不會持續大幅貶值
(明報)12月2日
【明報專訊】人民幣匯價自2005年匯改以來，一直反覆升值，而外資熱錢近年湧入本港投資國企H股，每每是看好中資股的盈利增長潛力，同時又可藉投資H股兼賺人民幣升值的匯價，然而人民幣近日掉頭貶值，會否打擊外資流入本港？有學者估計，人民幣畢竟不會出現大幅貶值趨勢，對港股影響甚微。
Hong Kong Investment
摩根士丹利大中華區首席經濟學家王慶表示，人民幣匯價下跌一天、兩天甚至一周都是有可能的，但「肯定不會出現趨勢性貶值」。他說，雖然中國整體經濟已開始放緩，但匯價是由國際收支決定的；儘管人民幣仍是非流通貨幣，但中國仍處在貿易順差，因此，人民幣不可能持續貶值。不過，王慶指出，如果人民幣因政策干預而持續貶值，人民幣匯率優勢銳減，或會削減國企股對外資的吸引力。
東亞經濟師：弊端有三
東亞銀行首席經濟師鄧世安認為，受到近期減息影響，部分資金開始流出中國，因此，人民幣匯價出現短暫下跌。他預計人民幣短期內將繼續震盪，但「長期而言，人民幣不會大幅貶值」。
另外，王慶反覆強調，「人民幣貶值一定弊大於利」。
他分析，貶值有利於出口，但會引發很多弊端，包括﹕
■對亞洲其他貨幣造成衝擊；
■與美國 的政府期望背道而馳，令中美關係緊張；
■大量資本可能進一步隨之流出等。
2000-01-01
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