2008-12-02
學者：人民幣不會持續大幅貶值
學者：不會持續大幅貶值
(明報)12月2日
【明報專訊】人民幣匯價自2005年匯改以來，一直反覆升值，而外資熱錢近年湧入本港投資國企H股，每每是看好中資股的盈利增長潛力，同時又可藉投資H股兼賺人民幣升值的匯價，然而人民幣近日掉頭貶值，會否打擊外資流入本港？有學者估計，人民幣畢竟不會出現大幅貶值趨勢，對港股影響甚微。
Hong Kong Investment
摩根士丹利大中華區首席經濟學家王慶表示，人民幣匯價下跌一天、兩天甚至一周都是有可能的，但「肯定不會出現趨勢性貶值」。他說，雖然中國整體經濟已開始放緩，但匯價是由國際收支決定的；儘管人民幣仍是非流通貨幣，但中國仍處在貿易順差，因此，人民幣不可能持續貶值。不過，王慶指出，如果人民幣因政策干預而持續貶值，人民幣匯率優勢銳減，或會削減國企股對外資的吸引力。
東亞經濟師：弊端有三
東亞銀行首席經濟師鄧世安認為，受到近期減息影響，部分資金開始流出中國，因此，人民幣匯價出現短暫下跌。他預計人民幣短期內將繼續震盪，但「長期而言，人民幣不會大幅貶值」。
另外，王慶反覆強調，「人民幣貶值一定弊大於利」。
他分析，貶值有利於出口，但會引發很多弊端，包括﹕
■對亞洲其他貨幣造成衝擊；
■與美國 的政府期望背道而馳，令中美關係緊張；
■大量資本可能進一步隨之流出等。
2000-01-01
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